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Future Tech: 

Will your plane crash? This app calculates the odds


“Just type in your flight details to generate the odds.”

Nervous about your next flight? Then you might be happy to learn that it has only a 1 in 3,450,272 chance of ending in a plane crash.

Those odds come via Am I Going Down? – a new iPhone app that claims it can calculate the chance of each individual plane falling out of the sky, analyzing big data from a number of sources. Anxious passengers need only enter their airline, plane type and destination and within seconds the app will generate the numbered odds – here’s hoping the number is a big one.

Actually, the numbers are always big, and the app was created by Vanilla Pixel developer Nic Johns to help his wife overcome her fear of flying. Testing the app he found that the odds of a plane crashing were always well over 1 in a million, and those reassuringly-high numbers are complimented by messages which add even more perspective, such as, ‘You’d expect to go down if you took this flight every day for 7,627 years’. And relax…


Phew! This San Francisco to London flight is in the clear.

To calculate the odds, Am I Going Down? scans data from the Bureau of Aircraft Accidents Archives, the United States National Transportation Safety Board and the International Civil Aviation Organization, analyzing more than 10 million routes from the past ten years. The calculations are based on prior accidents that resulted in one or more passenger fatalities, which Johns argues is the most relevant metric for anxious fliers.

Am I Going Down is actually Johns’ second travel-related app, following Bring Me Sunshine, which sources the perfect holiday destinations to meet your temperature preferences.

To find out more, or to download either app, visit the Vanilla Pixel website.

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